Gary Bates

Farming conditions are so much better than last year, University of Tennessee Extension office forage specialist Gary Bates said he can’t find the words to describe it.

But that is relatively speaking, he said.

“This year is dramatically better,” Dr. Bates said. “Last year we had that freeze over Easter weekend, which pretty much cut the hay crop in half. Then there was the drought that followed, and we never recovered.”

Farmers and experts around the region generally agree — weather conditions and crop yields are better. But that’s following two disastrous years .

“I have a very good crop,” Ringgold, Ga., farmer Don Williams said of this year’s hay. “It is a mixture of the chicken litter I put out and the rain we’ve had through the winter and the spring.”

Cleveland, Tenn., farmer Herbert Lackey was more hesitant to rave about conditions. “I wouldn’t say I’m a lot better off than last year,” he said. “It is a fairly decent crop.”

Mr. Lackey said he is concerned with the cumulative effects of the drought, which is in its third year.

Georgia state climatologist David Stooksbury said Northwest Georgia and Southeast Tennessee are wetter than other parts of the state and more moist than the last two years.

“It does look like, for the short term, we will be returning to the typical summertime pattern, but that still means the soils will dry out,” Dr. Stooksbury said.

weather and hay

A good chance of rain is predicted for the region over the next few days, but Dr. Stooksbury said drought indicators, such as stream flow, still point toward continuing drought in Northwest Georgia and Southeast Tennessee.

He said the Oostanaula River, formed where the Conasauga and Coosawattee rivers come together near Calhoun, Ga., is at only 35 percent of its “normal” flow at Rome, Ga.

The accumulated effect of drought that Mr. Lackey mentioned is a reality, Dr. Stooksbury said, because soils naturally lose moisture during the summer months.

“If we just have normal weather, we are still going to be losing moisture,” he said. “In a drought and going into the summertime, it is going to be extremely difficult to get out” of a drought.

Mr. Williams said he and his fellow farmers are “doing the best we can, just existing.” He said his business is a daily gamble.

“The rain is key to all farmers,” he said. “Factory people, if they go to work and work, they get a payday. If the weather is right and treats us good, we get a payday.”

Mr. Stooksbury said the multiyear drought is not historically unusual. Records of instrument readings and tree-ring data reaching back to the early 1800s show droughts of three years or longer happen about once every 40 years. Droughts lasting two or more years occur once every 25 years, he said.

“It is rare, but not all that rare,” he said.

Mr. Lackey said if there is enough water and warm weather in the autumn, he hopes to have enough hay to make it through winter. If the fall is dry and he has to begin feeding hay early, he may have to sell his cattle herd.

Cleveland, Tenn., farmer Bill Sparkman’s cattle pond dried up 18 months ago and hasn’t come back.

“We’ve had more rain and more moisture this year than last year, but still not enough to create much surface or ground water,” Mr. Sparkman said

But he said timely rains helped make a good first crop of hay this year. As for the second crop, “It all depends on the amount of rain we get next month,” he said.

corn

Last year, many farmers in Georgia and Tennessee planted more corn to capitalize on prices buoyed by the demand for ethanol.

Bitten by freeze and then hampered by drought, Tennessee farmers in 2007 still produced the most corn in 87 years because of increased acreage, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

The Georgia Farm Bureau said corn planting in 2007 was 120 percent higher than 2006.

Mr. Lackey said corn prices are still high this year because of ethanol demand. He suspects that farmers are still planting plenty of corn, although Tennessee isn’t a huge corn producer.

In Georgia, the southern part of the state is a bigger corn region than the Northwest, officials said. It can be a difficult to decide if corn is the best bet. Last year the drought killed off most North Georgia corn, and some farmers may have chosen soybeans because they don’t need as much fertilizer and can stand dryer conditions.

USDA statistics for this year’s crops are not yet available.

a turning point?

Mr. Lackey lives next door to another lifelong Cleveland farmer who has a son going into eighth grade. Mr. Lackey said the business is changing. He said his young neighbor loves farming but often questions whether he will be able to make a living at it, as his parents and grandparents did.

UT’s Dr. Bates said trying to run a small farm just for the love of it is increasingly impractical.

“Whatever sector you are in, you are going to have to become a better businessman to really make a profit in this type of situation,” Dr. Bates said.