Though the weekend’s real winner might be Tropical Storm Hanna, when the Sprint Cup cars do complete the Chevy Rock & Roll 400 at Richmond — now set for Sunday — the Chase field will be set. Though this race lacks the drama of the first two Chase cutoff races, it still has some intrigue.

While Kevin Harvick and Tony Stewart can pretty much sew up spots by just starting the race, others will have to work a bit. Here’s a closer look at their chances:

Matt Kenseth. Though not a lock, he’s a good bet to make it, needing to finish only 25th or better no matter what anyone else does. Kenseth is very good at staying out of trouble, usually. However, don’t forget that he finished 38th at Richmond in May, giving him two poor finishes in the last five races there. He can’t afford another one.

Jeff Gordon. A month ago it appeared as if Gordon could cruise through the final few pre-Chase races, but as the season has gone on, his finishes have gotten worse. He’s 103 points ahead of 13th-place David Ragan, so he doesn’t have to finish in the top 10, but the team’s penchant for running in the middle of the field has to be troubling for the four-time champion.

Denny Hamlin. He’s 11th in points and has to finish 21st or better to earn a Chase spot. If history is any indicator, Hamlin is a near lock, considering he has an average finish at Richmond of 10th and is coming off a race there in which he led 381 laps. Still, Hamlin’s near-win ended late with a flat tire, which led to a 24th-place finish. Oops.

Clint Bowyer. He’s officially on the bubble, holding down the 12th spot, just 17 points ahead of Ragan. However, barring accident, Bowyer will run well enough to make it. Remember, he won at Richmond in May and has never finished worse than 12th there in five starts.

David Ragan. If there’s an owner who can put all his resources into getting one driver into the Chase, it’s Jack Roush, who will need all his experience with the second-year driver. If not for the fact that Hamlin and Bowyer run so well there, Ragan’s shot would be excellent since he loves the track and has a third-place finish to his credit. Roush, for sure, will let Ragan go for it.

Kasey Kahne. He’s been inconsistent at Richmond, with finishes anywhere from third to 40th, so Kahne’s chances will depend more on what other people do than what he does. If others ahead of him wreck out, this team is good enough to seize the moment. However, he does need help.

It would be nice to see some new blood (Ragan) in the Chase, but it’s hard to see Gordon, Hamlin or Bowyer having too much trouble.

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