ARTICLE TOOLS
Busch, Johnson, Edwards will finish 1-2-3
It’s playoff time in NASCAR, and the 2008 version of the Chase for the Sprint Cup Championship has more storylines than any previous year, which is great news for a sport coming off a less-than-tantalizing regular season.
For the first time there are no newbies, meaning each of the 12 teams knows what to expect. No one involved is just glad to be there, which should lead to better races. There are plenty of drivers — Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, Matt Kenseth, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Kevin Harvick — with plenty to prove after lackluster regular seasons.
Jimmie Johnson is after his third consecutive title and has been the best driver lately, and there are the young, aggressive rivals in Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards who won’t back down from anyone. Here’s how this writer sees it all unfolding.
The champion: Kyle Busch. At one point in the season people were ready to put his name on the Cup, but a late-season lull — coupled with Edwards’ and Johnson’s strong finishes — has produced some doubt. Don’t buy into it.
As competitive as Busch is, a letdown was nearly inevitable once he clinched the Chase top spot. Maybe his team experimented or maybe it just eased up some. Either way, the competition starts over now and there will be no letting up. You know Busch is even more driven now that people are doubting him. And remember, he’s won on every type of track this year, which gives him a huge advantage over his competitors.
The runner-up: Jimmie Johnson. Most media types are picking the Hendrick Motorsports star to make it three in a row, and there’s no real reason to doubt the pick. He’s got the sport’s top crew chief in Chad Knaus, and together they know better than anyone what it takes to win with this format.
I believe Johnson will be there until the end but Busch will just be a bit better. Plus, winning three championships in a row is almost unheard of (Cale Yarborough in 1976-79 is the only other driver to do it). Maybe it’s just hard for me to put Johnson in that category or believe his luck will be that good again. Remember, winning a Chase title is almost as much about avoiding bad luck as it is about winning.
A close third: Carl Edwards. A strong argument can be made for Roush Fenway’s best to win his first title. Edwards has thrived this year on intermediate tracks, which describe most of the Chase sites.
He enters the Chase with loads of confidence, knowing he has outdueled Busch in their last two head-to-head finishes. I won’t be surprised if he wins it all, but it probably won’t be this year.
The next pack: Tony Stewart, Dale Earnhardt Jr. Here’s where it gets really interesting. Stewart is leaving Joe Gibbs Racing and becoming an owner, and his mind might not be totally on this Chase, but last week’s outburst at his crew proves the two-time titlist hasn’t lost an ounce of competitiveness.
If there’s one driver in this field who can shake off a poor regular season and make a title run, it’s Stewart. There’s nothing he and crew chief Greg Zipadelli haven’t seen.
As for Junior, the only reason I give him any hope of a title is that he’s due to have a good Chase. Plus, he gets to see how Hendrick approaches this 10-race sprint. Though it might not be an advantage to have teammates in the Chase, it can’t hurt to have three teams still working on this year instead of looking ahead. To me, no one needs a good start to this thing more than Junior.
With a little luck: Jeff Gordon, Jeff Burton, Matt Kenseth. Call them the Consistency Brothers, drivers who have built their careers by avoiding bad days and good finishes out of mediocre race cars. None of the three has any momentum entering this Chase, but if the favorites all have trouble, these guys will be there.
Likewise, though, if it’s going to take victories to win the title, none of the three will be in contention.
On a wing and a prayer: Kevin Harvick, Greg Biffle, Denny Hamlin, Clint Bowyer. This foursome is the opposite of the above three, meaning they have way too many ups and downs to win this title.
Hamlin has the best equipment of the group, but for some reason he and his crew aren’t in sync. If the history of the Chase has proven anything, it’s that a solid driver/crew chief relationship has to be working.
Bowyer, Biffle and Harvick have had some nice moments this year, but with a combined eight top-five finishes, they really can’t be expected to turn it around in time to be good enough to win the title. Thanks for playing.
If things play out as expected, this Chase has some serious dramatic possibilities. But don’t put too much weight on the above predictions. Remember, this is the same writer who predicted Harvick and Hamlin to win the last two Chases. Ouch.
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