Saturday in Athens, Ga.

Time: 7:45 p.m.

TV: ESPN

Line: Georgia by 6.5

Series: Alabama leads 35-25-4

The Crimson Tide win if ... : John Parker Wilson can reprise his role of game manager. Alabama offensive coordinator Jim McElwain’s plan with Wilson is obvious: Don’t allow him to make tough, critical decisions. Wilson has thrown only 94 passes this season and averages less than 10 yards per completion. An impressive running game helps, but the Tide will not exactly be seeing a run defense like they saw last week at Arkansas. The offense, based on what we’ve seen so far, is not equipped for Wilson to sling it around deep late in a game.

The Bulldogs win if ... : They are successful throwing the ball on first down. Georgia will struggle to block Alabama’s defensive front, and the matchup between true freshman center Ben Jones and massive Alabama noseguard Terrence Cody doesn’t seem fair. Nick Saban loves playing aggressively on defense, so the best way to get Alabama to back off is completing passes on first down. Also, Cody is less dominant in passing situations.

X-factor: Georgia linebacker Rennie Curran. The stats, tape and comments from the coaching staff are evidence that Georgia’s defense didn’t improve when the Bulldogs celebrated in the end zone against Florida. It was the emergence of Curran. Georgia’s defensive line simply isn’t getting much pressure on the quarterback and will struggle against Alabama’s Andre Smith and Antoine Caldwell. Curran will be counted on to stop Alabama’s vaunted run game and pressure Wilson.

Pick: Georgia 24, Alabama 17

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