So here we are at last, watching Phillip Fulmer face the specter of coaching doom, confronting the realization that today’s game against Auburn is one of the most important regular-season games of his career.

He transformed Tennessee into a national power and won 148 games, but even he must face the consequences of failing to meet the expectations he created. First, he’s lost most of the fans. The scene at Neyland Stadium last Saturday was the worst backlash toward Fulmer I’ve seen in Knoxville.

The booing was relentless. When a few fans protested the booing, they got cursed, I was told. And now a lot of us have heard the joke: FEMA wants to hire Fulmer because of his ability to evacuate 100,000 people so quickly.

And that’s why today’s game is absolutely critical for Fulmer. He lost the fans when the Vols played so poorly against Florida. With a loss to Auburn, he might not get them back. If the Vols lose today, the crowd at next week’s Northern Illinois game — especially when you consider the price of travel and gas shortages — will look like the Orange & White game.

Anger turning into apathy is a scary thought for Fulmer. Let’s face it: Tennessee athletic director Mike Hamilton is not going to make a change because a couple of bozos asked Fulmer to resign on “Vol Calls” last Monday, or because people are booing.

When people stop showing up — and, most importantly, stop showing up in those absolutely beautiful (and expensive) suites — Hamilton will certainly take note.

No matter what Tennessee does against Northern Illinois, no one will change his or her opinion of Fulmer. And the following game is at Georgia, which is unlikely to help his approval rating. That’s another reason why today’s game is so crucial. Fulmer can win this one. And if he doesn’t, the sting will last for weeks.

Another question Hamilton must ask: Is Fulmer the right man to lead Tennessee to another SEC title? The recent numbers aren’t very supportive.

Fulmer is 20-25 against ranked teams since 1998. He’s 29-27 against current SEC coaches. He’s 4-11 against Urban Meyer, Nick Saban and Mark Richt. He’s lost at least four games each of the last three years. Tennessee hasn’t finished in the top 10 since the 2001 season.

Here’s my question: How good is Fulmer without David Cutcliffe on staff? Well, he’s 85-19 (.817) with him and 63-28 (.692) without him. He’s 9-0 against Georgia with him and 2-5 without him. And look at Cutcliffe now: Duke is 2-1 and favored to win an ACC game today for the first time since 2002. That’s a tough realization for Tennessee fans.

Despite the numbers, Fulmer deserves a chance to reverse Tennessee’s fate this season and the next. He’s given almost his entire life to the university, and he’s done more than anyone could imagine for the football program. Last year, Tennessee started 1-2 and still played in Atlanta. Fulmer is very good when the program is desperate for a win. Today’s game qualifies as a desperate situation.

A loss today, however, is proof that 2008 will not remind anyone of 2007. It will almost eliminate Tennessee from the SEC East race.

A win brings hope. A win puts people back in the stands. And, hey, a win means Fulmer needs just six more this year to earn an automatic rollover on his contract.

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