Mel Kiper

NFL draft analyst Mel Kiper has no regrets about declaring in 2006 that University of Georgia freshman quarterback Matthew Stafford would be a future No. 1 pick.

Why should he?

Kiper believes Stafford, who elected last month to skip his senior season with the Bulldogs, will be drafted first overall by the Detroit Lions in April. The 6-foot-3, 228-pounder from Dallas will be among seven former Georgia players competing at the NFL combine, which begins next Wednesday in Indianapolis.

“I watched him in high school that senior year throw the football on highlight packages,” Kiper said Wednesday. “I said, ‘Man, oh, man, I haven’t seen a kid throw the ball like that in a while as a high-school senior.’ When I saw him move forward with the recruiting process and saw more of him and compared him to the other senior quarterbacks, it wasn’t close. I thought there were a lot of kids in college who couldn’t throw the ball like he did.

“I didn’t think the statement was going to be any big deal, but it got a lot of play in Athens. He was a heck of a prospect, so it’s not like I made an earth-shattering comment.”

Kiper is refraining from comparing Stafford to John Elway or Bert Jones, a pair of former NFL quarterbacks who possess the top arms Kiper has seen. Stafford has long admired Elway, but Kiper believes he is more in line with former Vanderbilt quarterback Jay Cutler because of inconsistent play.

Stafford and Southern Cal quarterback Mark Sanchez, who Kiper has going third overall to Kansas City, are being compared to Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco in last year’s draft, but Kiper is refraining in that aspect as well.

“Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco stayed all the way through, and these two did not, and that’s definitely a concern that you have to factor in there,” he said. “Everybody knows that the more experience you get in college, the better off you are. These two are not super-elite prospects, and I don’t think either player would be No. 1 on the board of a lot of teams. They do bring with them a little bit of risk.”

Said Stafford: “I think I’ve got room to grow in a lot of areas. I don’t feel I will change too much as far as my motion goes or how I go about throwing the ball, but obviously at the next level, the mental aspect of the game is going to be that much more intricate and tough.”

Kiper believes Wake Forest linebacker Aaron Curry is the safest pick and said Stafford must prove he’s a pitcher and not a thrower at the combine.

“We’ve seen him make throws that nobody else can make,” he said. “What he needs to show is that he can take a little bit off and be more precise and more accurate. Chad Pennington always finessed too many throws and never was able to power a throw. Matthew Stafford can power throws, but can he feather throws?”

Tailback Knowshon Moreno, receiver Mohamed Massaquoi, cornerback Asher Allen, linebacker Dannell Ellerbe, defensive tackle Corvey Irvin and fullback Brannan Southerland will join Stafford in Indianapolis. Kiper has Moreno going 16th overall to San Diego and has Massaquoi and Allen as likely third-rounders, adding that Allen would have benefited by returning to school.

Representing the University of Tennessee will be defensive tackle Demonte Bolden, defensive end Robert Ayers, tailback Arian Foster, guard Anthony Parker and punter Britton Colquitt. Kiper expects Ayers to be the first Vols player selected.

“He had a very good year at Tennessee and at the Senior Bowl,” Kiper said. “A lot of people I talk to around the league are raving about Robert Ayers. I don’t think early in the second round would be a reach.”