Young: Locks, almost locks and somebody being left out

DAYTONA BEACH, Fla. — The second week in February is here, and for a NASCAR beat writer it’s time to shake the magic 8-ball and try to shake out the upcoming 36-race Sprint Cup season.

A daunting task? Sure, but since the season is so long, the hope is no one will remember what follows in this column come mid November. Honestly, did we pick Jimmie Johnson to win it again last year? Ah, sure. Or maybe it was Kasey Kahne. The point is, so many factors can make or break a racing team’s season that it’s nearly impossible to look too far ahead.

I mean, Jeff Gordon and Dale Earnhardt Jr. have missed the Chase in recent years. Matt Kenseth, Gordon and Kevin Harvick went winless last year. Did anyone see any of that happening?

With that disclaimer, here’s what the TFP 8-ball predicts:

* The Chase locks

Unless he decides to spend more time in the kitchen, Johnson and crew chief Chad Knaus would actually have to try not to make the Chase. Nothing has changed with the car in over a year, which means the best teams will remain the best teams.

That goes also for Carl Edwards, Kyle Busch and Gordon. Edwards and Busch combined for 17 wins a year ago, and even though Busch fell apart in the Chase, it would take a total collapse for Joe Gibbs Racing’s top team not to make it this year. Edwards and crew chief Bob Osborne still have room to improve, believe it or not, something that has to scare the rest of the field. Gordon, after his mediocre 2008, is an extremely motivated driver.

* The almost sure things

Kenseth has made every Chase since its inception and it’s hard to see him not making this one. However, a new crew chief and suddenly finding himself third on the Roush Fenwah depth chart could lead to a trying season. Greg Biffle resurrected his career last yeare, signed a new deal with Roush Fenway and says he’s taking aim at his first Cup title. It could happen, though he also could revert back to his pre-2008 form and struggle.

Earnhardt would seem a lock to most, but until he and cousin Tony Eury Jr. put their childish squabbles behind them on race days, it’s hard to see him seriously contending. Owner Rick Hendrick, it’s been said, will make communication between driver and crew chief a team priority this year, and if it works, Junior could seriously contend.

The only question mark with Tony Stewart is what will happen if he goes 15 races without winning with his new team? The owner/driver deal in NASCAR has rarely produced good results, but if anyone can do it, it’s Stewart. With Hendrick Motorsports engine support and with veteran, quality people in charge of the shop, he’s in a great position to contend.

* The final four

Here’s where it gets fun, and it’s nearly a lock that at least one team will be a huge surprise. But who? Can David Ragan take the next step? Will Kurt Busch, Kahne or Ryan Newman find a little more consistency and make it? Sure, but we’re saying no.

We’ll start with the Richard Childress Racing duo of Clint Bowyer and Jeff Burton. Neither did much to suggest a possible title run this year, but they should be good enough to make the Chase. Some might be surprised to see Denny Hamlin in this spot, but consider the changes he faces this year, most notably being the senior member of JGR. Expected leadership, especially when it comes in such a volatile package, can lead to trouble.

Though Mark Martin making the Chase would hardly seem to be a reach, consider that he’s going from a zero pressure situation the past two years as a part-time driver to one where he now is expected to contend for a championship. The man puts a lot of pressure on himself, and unless he gets off to a great start, it could begin to mount for him. Still, I believe he’s rejuvenated to the point where he won’t let it become a factor.

That leaves Harvick as the main man out, and there’s no real logic to the choice except that someone will fall out and it would seem smart to pick someone who went winless last year.

* Other predictions

The biggest complaint of last year’s season was that too many races were uncompetitive and only a handful of teams were capable of winning week to week. That’s valid, but it’s something several drivers believe will turn around this year. The main reason is, with no changes with the car, the mid-level teams have caught up.

“This year is going to be more competitive than it was last year at the front of the field,” Burton said. “I think when you look at the top 36 teams, it’s more balanced than it was last year. You may not see more wins at Hendrick, but you’re going to see more wins by more drivers at Hendrick. I think you’re going to see that at Penske. You’re going to see more wins spread out throughout the garage. That’s my opinion.”

It’s also very likely that the bottom third of the field will become a mixed variety of part-time teams and those just trying to hang on in this tough economic landscape. Few people believe there won’t be full fields for every race, simply because NASCAR won’t let it happen.

As far as the fans are concerned, it would be foolish to believe the sport won’t take a hit by reduced ticket sales this year, but most tracks are working overtime to make it as feasible as possible to attend races. And for the first time, NASCAR is taking a proactive step in trying to get prices lowered at tracks and motels.

The final prediction is that the sport will surive, and when the economy turns around the lessons learned this year will lead to a more efficient and more fan-friendly series.