Poll shows Tennessee anti-income tax amendment struggling; many undecided

photo Governor Bill Haslam
photo Lamar Alexander

NASHVILLE - A newly released poll shows passage of a proposed anti-income tax amendment in the Tennessee Constitution is by no means a slam dunk for passage with only 30 percent of registered voters saying they intend to vote yes on it.

The Middle Tennessee State University Poll also shows the two top Republicans on Tuesday's ballot - Gov. Bill Haslam and U.S. Sen. Lamar Alexander - comfortably ahead of their Democratic challengers in Tuesday's election.

Still, Haslam has only 50 percent backing compared to 19 percent for his little-known Democratic opponent, Charles V. "Charlie" Brown, who has spent virtually nothing, has no television ads and isn't really running a campaign.

And the best thing going for two-termer Alexander, who has just 42 percent of voters saying they'll vote for him, appears to be Democrat Gordon Ball, who has only 26 percent support. Fifteen percent were undecided.

The MTSU Poll of 600 registered voters was conducted Oct. 22-26 by professional interviewers with Issues & Answers Network Inc., using both landline telephones and cellphones. Its margin of error is plus or minus 4 percent.

With regard to Amendment 3, the proposed anti-income tax measure, the survey found it drew support from just 30 percent of registered voters. Another 25 percent said they opposed it. A whopping 24 percent said they were unsure. Yet another 14 percent said they would not vote on the amendment and 6 percent refused to say.

"Given the statistical tie between supporters and opponents as well as the large number of voters who are still making up their minds, we can't say for sure from these poll results how Amendment 3 will fare," said Jason Reineke, assistant director of the MTSU Poll, on Friday.

Poll Director Ken Blake said the issue "hasn't seen nearly as much [campaign] advertising and discussion."

He said the survey involved reading the proposed amendment exactly as it appears on the ballot. That includes legalese and all. It was the only fair way to do it, Blake said.

"You got to be a law school graduate to understand what they say," he said. "The results are what they are. And I think there'll be a lot of people making kind of snap decisions" in the polling booth.

Reineke points out another challenge to amendment supporters. In order for any constitutional amendment - there are a total of four on the ballot - it must receive a majority of votes cast in the governor's race. Reineke said only 166 likely voters said they supported the amendment while 416 said they intended to cast a vote in the governor's race.

"That only comes to 40 percent," Reineke said, noting proponents "have some ground to cover" to pull in the undecided voters.

Meanwhile, the governor's race shows Haslam leading Brown by 31 points - 50-19 percent. Fourteen percent were undecided. Eight percent said they intended to vote for one of the minor party or independent candidates. Nine percent just flat out refused to say.

In the Alexander/Ball contest, Democrat Ball has run advertising and mounted more of a campaign. Alexander has outspent the Knoxville trial lawyer considerably.

But in a Republican-leaning state, Alexander still wound up with just 42 percent support to Ball's 26 percent - a 16-point lead. Fifteen percent were undecided. Ten percent - one out of every 10 people surveyed -said they intended to vote for a minor party or independent candidate. And 8 percent simply refused to say what they intended to do.

Another independent tracking poll recently showed Alexander doing better but still hovering near the 50 percent mark. Both candidates are seeking to portray themselves as agents of change with Alexander saying a GOP Senate majority would counter President Barack Obama while Ball argues that if people don't like what's going on in Washington, they need to elect someone else.

Alexander spokesman Brian Reisinger called the MTSU survey "one more poll showing Sen. Alexander with a big lead because Tennesseans know he would be one more vote for a new Senate majority to lead our country in a new direction."

Contact staff writer Andy Sher at asher@timesfreepress.com or 615-255-0550.

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