We are hitting the home stretch of the college football regular season. We know that.
What else do we know? In truth, very little considering we are sprinting toward the first college football playoff, which needs a new name and a new set of guidelines -- since no one, including the committee, is 100 percent certain of what they are trying to do. Are they looking for the best teams by talent or resume or last week's results? Are they looking for true champions or true championship contenders?
The top four in the eyes of the college football playoff committee were released Tuesday night.
And we are equally intrigued and insecure about how this will play out. The committee ranked them this way:
1. Alabama
2. Oregon
3. Florida State
4. Mississippi State
OK, let's explain our belief that there is trouble on the horizon.
First, we believe Alabama to be the best team in the country. We do not believe them to be the most accomplished team in the country to this point.
So we have to wonder if the committee is trying to rank the best teams or the most-deserving teams. We have to wonder this because of the awful lack of transparency the committee has embraced rather than making the process more open. We also have to wonder what this means going forward.
How can a power conference team be the nation's lone unbeaten and not be No. 1? And save that "FSU's got a weak schedule" junk. The Seminoles have played their conference schedule -- and they can't help it that this year that conference schedule is below average. They have a consistent top finisher from the Big 12 (Oklahoma State) and two of the nation's power programs (Notre Dame and Florida) on their nonconference schedule -- and they can't help it that it's a blah-tastic year for those programs.
Nope, the fact that Florida State is No. 3 despite winning every step on its journey means the committee is gauging quality of wins rather than winning. This is not a good thing.
By that account, it may not be enough for any of these teams to simply win out to secure a top-four spot. Case in point, TCU fell out by escaping against a terrible Kansas team 34-30 last week.
So style is now a factor. Glitter over guts, we could call it. And point differential matters, too, which means running it up will be more common.
And to highlight the confusion even within the committee, committee chair Jeff Long said in consecutive sentences that Alabama was No. 1 and keeping former No. 1 Mississippi State in the all-coveted top four was because Alabama was in complete control of the game but "you never felt like Mississippi State was out of it."
One team was in complete control, but the other team was never out of it? Hmmmmmm.
Now TCU and Baylor and Ohio State are on the cusp looking in.
And if you think the "Let's just do eight and move along" would make this easier, well, in the scenario everyone prefers -- eight teams (power five conference champs, three at-larges) -- here's the field with assumed champs:
SEC champ: Alabama
ACC champ: Florida State
Pac-12 champ: Oregon
Big 12 champ: TCU (holds the tiebreaker)
Big Ten champ: Ohio State
The next two would be Baylor and Mississippi State as two easy at-larges. From there, who among the two-loss hodgepodge of Georgia, Ole Miss, Michigan State, et al is next? Or does Marshall get a sniff?
Curious times ahead, for sure, especially with the unknown of the first crafting of the four-team playoff field.
Theoretically, college football is still pregnant with a playoff. It has not even been delivered yet, and fans and media folks are dying for the field to be expanded to eight teams sooner rather than later. And by sooner we mean by, say, lunch on Monday.
We believe that the bigger the field, the more watered-down the regular season becomes. This is fact. Yes, this playoff Final Four or whatever they are calling it has not had an effect on the drama of the regular season so far. But that "so far" is a mighty big piece of that sentence.
Want to know what damages the regular season? Not rewarding winning and rationalizing losses. The committee did both earlier this week by keeping Mississippi State in the top four and leaving unbeaten Florida State at No. 3.
All of this is an effort to find a better way to determine a champion. But determining a champion is not rewarding the best team. Were the Giants or the Royals the best team in baseball? Nope, they got hot in October and won the playoffs.
Playoffs are better than bowls at determining a champion, but in pre-playoff college football, the march was three months long rather than finding your way into a three-game tournament when it expands to eight teams.
Yes, eight is more equitable than four because you can retain a chunk of value in the regular season by making sure the big five conference champs get invited. But again, that's looking for a champ, not the best team, especially when a vague and secretive committee is deciding what the candidates should be like with no transparency and no established guidelines.
Long embraced "Game Control" in his testament that one-loss Alabama and one-loss Oregon are better than unbeaten FSU. Forget game control -- what about game outcome?
The drama and the energy and the excitement of the college football regular season comprise its most valuable commodity. And any part of the playoff that detracts from that should be considered a threat.
While a playoff can be awesome and unbelievable, it should not mean sacrificing the regular season in whole. Ask college basketball.