Lamar Alexander
Gordon BallNASHVILLE - A new poll shows Republican U.S. Sen. Lamar Alexander leads Democratic challenger Gordon Ball by 21 points, but with his overall support hovering just above 50 percent, the two-term incumbent is taking no chances and bashing Ball at every opportunity.
The snapshot of 1,007 likely voters' preferences was conducted from Sept. 20-Oct. 1 for CBS News, The New York Times and YouGov.
It shows Alexander leading Ball, a wealthy Knoxville attorney, by 53 to 32 percent. The poll found 12 percent undecided and 2 percent prefer "other" candidates.
The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percent, which means Alexander could be as low as 49 percent while Ball could be as high as 36 percent with room to grow -- if Ball can become better known on his own terms.
Tennesseans are watching that play out on their television sets and radio: Alexander this week began attacking Ball with two television ads, seeking to link him to Republicans' favorite punching bag, President Barack Obama.
Ball's own television ad, meanwhile, charges Alexander is "out of tune" with Tennesseans. It features actual footage of a piano-playing Alexander pounding out a digitally altered, mangled version of the "Tennessee Waltz."
Speaking Wednesday with Times Free Press editors and reporters, Alexander said while he refrained from criticizing his GOP primary opponent, state Rep. Joe Carr, R-Lascassas, on radio or television during their August primary, the general election "is different."
"Here we have a big choice ... a different choice," Alexander said. "He (Ball) is one more vote for the Obama agenda, and I'm one more vote for a Republican [Senate] majority to lead us in a conservative direction. And that's a big choice. I think the people of Tennessee are not happy with the direction of the country."
Alexander added that he believes "if I can deliver that message effectively over the next three weeks, I can win."
Ball campaign manager Matt Kuhn in a statement called it "absurd that Lamar Alexander would attack Gordon Ball when it is Lamar Alexander that has voted with Barack Obama more than 62 percent of the time."
Kuhn said Ball "has never met President Obama and has never received one dime from the national party or the Washington special interest groups that are backing Alexander. The only person Gordon Ball is beholden to are the people of the state of Tennessee. And that is a change we desperately need in Washington today."
Bill Fletcher, a Nashville-based Democratic strategist, said that while a 21 percent spread isn't a bad thing to have, the real issue is where the incumbent is in relation to 50 percent.
Ball's first general election campaign ad only began on Monday, the same day as Alexander began slamming him. Alexander launched a second ad Tuesday.
"It's basically an insurance policy," Fletcher said of Alexander's two ads. "What they're trying to do is keep Gordon Ball from expanding and hold him right where he is."
Fletcher, who is not involved in Ball's campaign, said the Democrat "is trying to bring Lamar down by about three points and trying to increase his positive name ID. Lamar Alexander is trying to rally his base and he's trying to keep Gordon Ball from expanding because he can't expand himself."
Alexander, who served two terms as governor, is almost universally recognized by voters, other polls have shown.
Alexander agreed the lesser-known candidate normally could count on getting more of the undecided vote in a party primary.
But in a general election, even voters who don't like a candidate are likely to stick with their party and its positions.
"My job is to make sure everybody knows what the choice is ... and I'm working hard to do that," Alexander said.
Alexander's latest ad crams five charges against Ball and two Obama mentions into a single sentence. All that occurs as an image of Obama ominously emerges from the head of Ball, who says he's an independent conservative.
The narrator in Alexander's 30-second spot says Ball would be "just one more vote for Obama. He's a liberal, pro-Obamacare, pro-choice, pro-gun control, slick-talking personal injury lawyer."
Ball's ad, meanwhile, charges that Alexander is "out of tune with the voters of Tennessee." The voice-over says Alexander backed "Wall Street bailouts," opposed term limits and "gives tax breaks to corporations that ship our jobs overseas."
The ad presents Ball as "real. Honest. In step with the values of Tennessee. If you want to change the way Washington is run, then change the people who are running it."
Fletcher said he was puzzled by Alexander's first ad, which shows the senator sternly looking into the camera and asserting "Obamacare's a failure, border security's a mess, terrorists run rampant and America's drowning in debt. If that's OK with you then vote for my opponent -- he'll be just one more vote for Barack Obama's agenda."
It appears to be directed at getting the party's hard right more excited, but Fletcher said, "It's like an old man yelling at kids to get off his lawn. And now this attack on Gordon Ball is artless and tasteless."
Gregory Gleaves, a former state Republican Party executive director, disagreed on most of Fletcher's points, beginning with what the poll means.
"The bottom line is it's October and Lamar Alexander's up 21 points. It's too late for Gordon Ball to narrow that," Gleaves said.
Contact staff writer Andy Sher at asher@timesfreepress.com or 615-255-0550.