Gang - mailbag.
From the "Talks too much" studios, we got to go.
Alabama offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach Lane Kiffin speaks to the media before practice Tuscaloosa, Ala., in this file photo.SEC items of interest
Here are five things we are intrigued by this week in the SEC.
How does Alabama respond? Nick Saban got ill with the media this week because it was Tuesday. Or because it was the media. or maybe because it was a Tuesday with the media. Anyhoo, dude looks motivated, and unless Lane Kiffin ate his Oatmeal Creme Pie, we expect an improved performance against a Texas A&M defense that has been part pacifist and part Swish (cheese or military, either works here). And the Aggies are downright cute when they try to cover opposing receivers. Over/under for Amari Cooper catches is 10, and we think Verne and Gary are going to have to find second-half filler in this runaway.
Can the young UT offensive line survive the trip to Oxford? Maybe the question should be about Justin Worley, who will have to have his head on a swivel against the SEC's most complete defense that is very good at each level.
Are the Wildcats ready for primetime? Kentucky goes to Death Valley for a night game with a chance to get bowl eligible before Halloween. Yes, you read that correctly. Are they ready? We'll see, and know this - LSU is about to play its eighth game in eight weeks, and after a physically and emotional draining trip to the Swamp, the dominos are in place for Wildcats.
Just about everything in the Georgia-Arkansas game is intriguing to us. We like that matchup on both sides and want to see which QB - Brandon Allen or Hutson Mason - delivers.
Which quarterback will stink less? Missouri's Maty Mauk and Florida's Jeff Driskel are ranked last and next to last in the SEC. The Tom Emanski folks need to film this one on what not to do.
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Fab 4 picks
We are doubting some of our long-held entertainment investment strategies. We are struggling and looking for an edge. If we were Nuke LaLoosh, we'd think about wearing a garter. If we were Tin Cup, we'd put our change in the other pocket and turn our visor around. If we were Pedro Cerrano, we'd look to JoBu for answers and need a live chicken.
We need something, and that something arrives today. We have mixed research with feel and feelings with reaching. This is supposed to be entertaining, and if your entertainment budget gets spent, well, you have to find cheaper entertainment.
So we sat down and did a little studying. We crunched some numbers. We examined charts - "Doctor. Doctor." - and we tried to find that extra edge that we have been lacking.
Then it hit us. Vegas is good. How is Vegas so good? Well, if we knew that, then we'd be Vegas, which would be sweet to be the personification of Vegas, as long as it's not Celine Dion with that white Tiger from those happy magical fellows in an Elvis jumpsuit driving an '82 Caddie. Although an '82 Caddie would be awesome. Where were we?
Oh yes, thinking like Vegas. Looking at the numbers you can get an idea who Vegas likes on a few games. Here's how: The points spreads posted on each game are frequently viewed as Vegas' best guess of the differential in the final score. While Vegas has an uncanny ability to be close to that more times than not, the point spread is actually Vegas putting a number out there in an effort to get the betting public to put their entertainment equally on each side. That's lesson one.
Lesson two today is there is subtle way to find some teams that Vegas wants the public to back. If there is unnatural line movement - if Team A is favored by 7 and the public is all over Team A but the line drops to Team A minus 6, then Vegas wants all of the public money on Team A - then we should capitalize on that when possible.
Football tileWe have our picks on a combined and collected hodgepodge of methods below.
Last week: 1-4 against the spread
This season: 22-24 against the spread overall
Temple plus-7.5 over Houston: Houston has quarterback issues. Temple has been better than most have expected.
Northern Illinois minus-10 over Miami (Ohio): We have long held a belief that you can find edges betting against teams every bit as much as you can betting on teams. This fits, and as our old family friend from Holland named Margot says (and everyone has that family friend from another country that routinely butchers familiar American expressions), "If the shoe fits, take it home from the store."
Cincinnati minus-13 over SMU: Another of the few consistent things we have found this year is going against SMU. The Mustangs are the Tim Duncan of stickiness in that you know what you got, you pencil it in and expect 19 and 12 and hitting close to 70 percent. In fact, SMU will likely be in here all year. We love you Smoo.
Boise State minus-16 over Fresno State: Two things here. 1) Frenso State has played each of the season's first seven weeks, and is one of 11 teams nationally that will play again this week. That leads to aches and bruises and fatigue. 2) Boise is physical and scores. Plus, Boise State is coming off a bye and is at home. Well, that's three things, which is even better right?
South Florida minus-2 over Tulsa: Tulsa has been disappointingly bad, losing five straight. South Florida has more talent, and as for a 2-4 Bulls team being a road favorite, well, those four losses are to two Big Ten teams, an ACC foe and East Carolina.
Alabama minus-11 over Texas A&M: Bama has been awful against the number - going 1-8 against the spread dating back to the Mississippi State game last year. Bama was dreadful offensively last week against an Arkansas team that played each of these teams to knock-down slugfests. The number may seem high for an Alabama offense that has scored 31 points in its last two SEC games, but know this: According to reports, almost 80 percent of the public's money has been on Texas A&M so far, yet the line is actually going up. That means that Vegas likes the Tide this week, and if you can figure out what Vegas likes, well, congrats.
For study sake, and since we need a comeback, here are a few more than Vegas has shaded with its view, meaning that despite the money, the line has skewed to the point that the inference is the sharks like the following games: Pitt minus-1 over Virginia Tech; Western Michigan +1.5 over Bowling Green; Kent State plus-3.5 over Army; Arizona State +3 over Stanford; Oregon minus-20 over Washington; California plus-7 over UCLA; West Virginia plus-8 over Baylor; Florida minus-6 over Missouri; Oklahoma State plus-9 over TCU.
Of those, we like Cal plus the 7 the most, and while those are not among our picks this week, let's study the outcome for better understanding next week. (We charted similar stats last week and the teams that Vegas shaded with unnatural line movement went 5-2 against the spread. So there's that.)
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Royals in the series
Wow, you go Kansas City. Nice work and there can be no talk of flukes or flakes when you win eight straight postseason games.
Because we are who we are (trademark Popeye, considering it's the proper grammatical version of "I am what I am,") here are some tidbits from the time the last time the Royals were in the World Series in mid-October 1985.
Phil Niekro wins his 300th game, which is incredible to think Phil Niekro was still pitching in 1985. Wowser.
Jets retire Joe Namath's No. 12 on MNF. He does not try to kiss Suzy Kolber, however. Side note, Suzy would have been 21 years old in 1985.
a-ha's "Take on Me" is No. 1 for a week in mid-October before being bumped by Whitney Houston's "Saving all my Love."
"You look mahv-lous," from Billy Crystal's Fernando was the SNL catch phrase.
Making its debut in 1985: New Coke (how'd that go?), Swatches, Teddy Ruxpin and David Letterman's Top 10 list (David Letterman's First Top Ten List Appeared...
Top 10 Words that Almost Rhyme With "Peas"
Heats
Rice
Moss
ties
Needs
Lens
Ice
Nurse
Leaks
Meats
Top grossing movie was Back to the Future and the top two TV shows were The Cosby Show and Family Ties, which were the foundation for Must-See TV on Thursday night for NBC.
The Royals. We're going to go back in time.
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This and that
- Two teams that could use some Royals's karma? In 1985, the Bears were the NFL's best team and Oklahoma was the NCAA champ.
- This seems puzzling but LeBron and some of the NBA players want fewer games. Hmmmm, this is a few days after they want a bigger cut of the salary cap, right? So that means more pay for less games? Somewhere Stewwie just got a headache.
- We'll have more on this tomorrow, but Peyton Manning is within two TD passes of the all-time record, and while we expect OG and Jomo to take a shot because that's what they do, Manning's awesome. Congrats all around.
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Today's question
Enjoy the hodgepodge today, especially the craziness that was 1985.
Today is Tim Robbins' 54th birthday. Dude was the previously mentioned, garter-wearing Nuke LaLoosh in Bull Durham. You know this.
Today's Rushmore is of best sports superstitions. Go.