Fox News Poll: Blackburn up by 3 points in Bredesen match but race remains up for grabs

Phil Bredesen and Marsha Blackburn
Phil Bredesen and Marsha Blackburn

NASHVILLE - A new Fox News Poll shows Tennessee's U.S. Senate contest remains too close to call with Republican Marsha Blackburn leading Democrat Phil Bredesen among likely voters by 47 percent to 44 percent, a 3-point margin that is within the survey's margin of error.

The Sept. 8-11 survey was conducted for Fox News under the joint operation of Anderson Robbins Research, a Democratic polling firm, and Shaw & Company Research, a Republican firm.

It differs from an Aug. 25-28 conducted on behalf of NBC News, which also showed a tight race but Bredesen ahead by two points, 48-46 percent.

Fox's poll comes as Republican independent expenditure groups have started pounding Bredesen in TV, radio and digital ads over the last few weeks.

Fox News called the contest "surprisingly close" for a Republican-leaning state easily won by President Donald Trump in 2018.

"Bredesen is within striking distance of Blackburn, which is unusual for a Democrat in Tennessee" Fox News quoted Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts the network's poll with Democrat Chris Anderson, saying.

Shaw said Bredesen, a former two-term Tennessee governor and moderate Democrat, is "personally popular, with a net favorable rating of +18, and he's up 13 points among those who are 'extremely interested' in the race. That's got to cause some anxiety in Blackburn's camp."

Blackburn, a conservative Brentwood congressman, and Bredesen are vying to succeed U.S. Sen. Bob Corker, a Chattanooga Republican who is not seeking reelection to a third term.

Meanwhile, in Tennessee's race for governor, the Fox News poll shows Republican candidate Bill Lee, a Brentwood businessman, has opened a 20-point lead over former Nashville mayor and Democrat Karl Dean among the 686 likely voters surveyed.

Fifty-five percent of those surveyed said they back Lee while Dean garnered 35 percent.

Sixteen percent of those who said they support Bredesen in the Senate contest told pollsters they back Lee in the race to succeed term-limited Republican Gov. Bill Haslam.

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Trump won a 26- percentage point victory in 2018 over Democrat Hillary Clinton.

Eighty-one percent of Bredesen's supporters told pollsters they feel certain they will vote for him compared to 74 percent for Blackburn.

Overall, the news network reported, one in five likely voters said they could switch their pick before the Nov. 6 general election.

Another eight percent remained undecided in their vote choice, providing room for the race to change.

The Fox News poll found that not everyone who approves of Trump is backing Blackburn, "and that makes for a close race."

Among Trump approvers, 76 percent support Blackburn. But 16 percent back Bredesen, who served as governor from 2003 to 2011.

Bredesen, who is seeking crossover support from moderate Republicans, garners 93 percent of the vote among Democrats, while Blackburn gets 83 percent of the GOP vote.

Blackburn, a sometimes-fiery conservative and former state senator was first elected to the U.S. House in 2002. Trump has been here once to campaign for her and Vice President Mike Pence was in Cleveland and Chattanooga this summer for a rally and a fundraiser for Blackburn.

The poll shows Blackburn ahead by 15 points among men, 15 points among whites and 35 points among white evangelical Christians.

Bredesen is preferred by 9 points among women, 10 points among voters under age 45, and 61 points among non-whites.

Likely voters say their top concern is the economy with 29 percent saying that will be the most important factor in their vote. Close behind are the 27 percent who say health care is their top concern.

Blackburn enjoyed a 9-point advantage among economy voters while those prioritizing health care skew heavily for Bredesen by 35 point.

The candidates are about equally popular. Just over half held a favorable opinion of Bredesen (54 favorable vs. 36 unfavorable) and Blackburn (51 favorable vs. 39 percent unfavorable).

Tennessee voters' views are divided over Trump's trade policies with 39 percent saying they are helping the U.S. economy. Thirty-seven percent say they are hurting it.

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