Officials expect early voting will be heavy

Voting dates Friday-July 31: Early voting for the county general election and state race primariesAug. 5: County general election and state race primariesElection Day: Nov. 2What's nextA Nashville debate featuring Republican gubernatorial hopefuls Bill Haslam, Ron Ramsey and Zach Wamp along with Democrat Mike McWherter is scheduled to air today in Chattanooga from 8 to 9 p.m. EDT on WRCB-Channel 3.

NASHVILLE -- State election officials say as many as half of Tennessee's Aug. 5 primary voters will cast their ballots during the two-week period of early voting, which starts Friday.

"I think early voting will be heavy," state Election Coordinator Mark Goins said. "I'm looking at between 45 to 50 percent to actually come in and vote early."

With a hot Republican governor's race, three open congressional seats including the 3rd District up for grabs, and a scattering of fiercely contested sheriffs' general election contests and legislative primary contests, Mr. Goins said he believes interest is high.

The GOP gubernatorial primary over the weekend continued to heat up. Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey, of Blountville, and U.S. Rep. Zach Wamp, a Chattanoogan, took aim at the man they acknowledge to be the contest's front-runner, Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam, who has dominated fundraising and television advertising.

They charged Mr. Haslam is misleading voters about his history on gun issues, a charge the mayor dismisses. Tonight the trio are scheduled to square off in a debate that includes Democrat Mike McWherter at Belmont University in Nashville.

In a campaign e-mail Sunday, the Wamp campaign was promising to mix it up, urging Tennesseans not to "miss the opportunity to see Zach clearly lay out his 20/20 Vision for an Even Better Tennessee and see him take on the other candidates."

The latest public poll, conducted for WSMV-TV, Nashville's NBC affiliate, indicates a large number of voters -- 36 percent -- remain undecided in the GOP primary. It also shows Mr. Haslam leading with 32 percent versus 21 percent for Rep. Wamp and 11 percent for Lt. Gov. Ramsey.

Nashville-based conservative radio talk show host Steve Gill, whose program airs on WPLZ-FM in Chattanooga, said that while he questions some aspects of the survey's methodology, he thinks Mr. Haslam does lead although to a lesser percentage than indicated by the survey.

But, Mr. Gill said, "I don't think it's over by any means because despite all the money Haslam has spent creating a positive view of himself, he still hasn't been able to get his approval numbers above a third. He clearly hasn't sold the deal at this point, which has to be a concern."

He said Lt. Gov. Ramsey and Rep. Wamp "are being awfully hesitant to hit." If "you don't change the dynamic," Mr. Gill said, "then I think he (Haslam) wins."

Vanderbilt University political science professor John Geer said the race remains "exceptionally fluid." When it comes to television advertising, he said, going negative in a three-way contest is risky for the attacker as well as the attacked with the third candidate possible reaping the benefits.

"But as the race draws to a close, the candidate who trails will probably have little choice but to attack," he said. "It is critical they try something to shake up the race."

On Saturday, Lt. Gov. Ramsey said he is "fighting a machine gun with a derringer" in terms of Mr. Haslam's money and advertising advantage. "So we're going to have two shots, and they'd better be up close. We're up close right now. ... People are just beginning to tune in."

But he also indicated he may be attacking Rep. Wamp. Rep. Wamp said "at some point somebody is going to actually tell the truth about Bill Haslam. That's just the way it is."

Lt. Gov. Ramsey said he believes Mr. Halsam's campaign has spent $5 million on television.

According to one Republican analysis, Mr. Haslam's campaign spent an estimated $3 million on broadcast television, cable and radio through July 4 and had bought time for an additional $1.46 million in ads through the Aug. 5 primary. That doesn't preclude him from spending more.

In comparison, Mr. Wamp is said to have spent $1.2 million on broadcast television as of July 1 with Mr. Ramsey spending an estimated $800,000, much of it on cable.

Mr. Haslam's advertising has focused solely on saying positive things about the candidate, but he indicated he may respond in kind if the candidates, who have confined their attacks so far to oral statements, take to television to make their cases.

"When you enter a race, you go into a race with the knowledge some people might try to be negative. We're prepared to respond," Mr. Haslam said.

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