Wiedmer: Vols' regular-season SEC title no longer so certain

Tennessee's Kyle Alexander blocks out as he looks for the rebound against South Carolina on Wednesday night at Thompson-Boling Arena in Knoxville.
Tennessee's Kyle Alexander blocks out as he looks for the rebound against South Carolina on Wednesday night at Thompson-Boling Arena in Knoxville.
photo Mark Wiedmer

LEXINGTON, Ky. - For 122 days, Ben Howland's words were golden, beyond dispute or rebuke.

At media day for Southeastern Conference men's basketball this past October, Howland was asked why he picked Tennessee to win the league rather than highly favored Kentucky.

"That's easy," the Mississippi State coach replied. "They return everybody from the team that won the conference a year ago. And they beat Kentucky twice last year. How are they not the favorite?"

For the first 24 games of this season, the Volunteers made Howland look like a genius. They started 23-1. They put together a 19-game winning streak that set a program record and included a victory over then-No. 1 Gonzaga in Phoenix. They won their first 11 games in SEC play, forging a résumé that lifted them to No. 1 in The Associated Press Top 25 for four straight weeks.

Then came Saturday night in Rupp Arena against No. 5 Kentucky, which is having a pretty good season of its own. The Vols led 2-0. The Wildcats won 86-69, at least partly because they scored the first 14 points of the final half and led by 24 points (62-38) with 12:38 to go.

"We were dominated in every way you can be dominated," an angry coach Rick Barnes said afterward of his Vols. "I told my coaches, 'I don't know who I'm looking at, what I'm looking at.'"

What the Vols will be looking at when the polls come out today is a lower spot in the rankings. I'd predict the new top five will be Duke returning to No. 1, Gonzaga second, Virginia third, the Vols fourth and the Wildcats remaining fifth because of their loss to LSU this past Tuesday.

But the polls are not what should worry Tennessee. Polls have a limited impact on NCAA tournament seeds. Polls can change dramatically from week to week, while the tourney selection committee's private rankings change little. Assuming its lone SEC defeat doesn't turn to three or four before the end of the regular season, Tennessee can still easily hold onto its projected No. 1 tourney seed.

Holding on to the regular-season SEC title it was expected to win could be another matter, however. The Vols are now tied with surprising LSU atop the league standings at 11-1, and the Bayou Bengals of former University of Tennessee at Chattanooga coach Will Wade have a far easier schedule going forward. In fact, LSU has the easiest schedule of any contending team in the league, with the Tigers' remaining six opponents having a combined SEC mark of 32-40 to date.

Meanwhile, Tennessee - which must visit Baton Rouge this Saturday - faces a remaining conference schedule of opponents currently 41-31 in league play. Then there's second-place Kentucky, with its SEC foes the rest of the way currently 39-33 in league play.

And there's the rub for the Vols regarding the season to date and the season moving forward. Most of that 19-game winning streak that ended Saturday was built against unranked foes. Much like Kentucky and Auburn - its remaining SEC opponents currently have a combined 39-33 mark - Tennessee's schedule was backloaded for television, with its toughest games last.

It's not their fault, but since toppling the then-No. 1 Zags on Dec. 9, the Vols hadn't faced another ranked foe until Kentucky. And given that stat, one can't help but wonder how much of the Big Orange's glittering 23-2 overall record this season isn't at least slightly due to an unexpectedly soft schedule.

"They are the No. 1 team in the country," said Wildcats coach John Calipari, who also attempted to stop Kentucky fans from chanting "Overrated! Overrated!" near the close of Saturday's game.

"They missed some shots they normally make. We gave them a chance where we had them down big, and all of a sudden you turn around and (the lead is) 15, 16, 12. That's why I was going crazy on some guys, because they're looking at me like, 'Why are you going nuts? We're still up 12.' (But) we were up 24."

Indeed, if there is a single reason for Volniacs not to worry about this loss, it's what their team briefly did after falling behind by that margin. Over a torrid stretch of two minutes and 20 seconds from 11:09 left on the clock to 8:49, the Vols outscored Kentucky 13-0 on its home court.

Added Calipari: "I could see them making some (more) shots and beating us."

And had Kentucky not swiftly settled in, had Big Blue let that 11-point lead slip to four or five points, the Vols might have rallied. But that didn't happen, and because it didn't, the Vols' trip to LSU this week and Kentucky's visit to Knoxville the following weekend now hold all the keys to Tennessee's conference championship dreams.

"We got them today, but we've got to go up to Knoxville," Calipari said Saturday before playfully asking, "Do we have to go up to Knoxville?"

They do, but first the Vols have to go to LSU, and what happens there may well determine whether or not UK-UT II is for at least a share of the SEC regular-season crown or merely for second.

Contact Mark Wiedmer at mwiedmer@timesfreepress.com.

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