Wiedmer: With NCAA tourney four weeks away, Duke still the team to beat

FILE - In this Saturday, March 17, 2018, file photo, Duke's Marvin Bagley III (35) shoots against Rhode Island during the first half of a second-round game in the NCAA men's college basketball tournament in Pittsburgh. Duke takes on Syracuse in a regional semifinal on Friday. (AP Photo/Keith Srakocic, File)
FILE - In this Saturday, March 17, 2018, file photo, Duke's Marvin Bagley III (35) shoots against Rhode Island during the first half of a second-round game in the NCAA men's college basketball tournament in Pittsburgh. Duke takes on Syracuse in a regional semifinal on Friday. (AP Photo/Keith Srakocic, File)

The NCAA men's basketball tournament starts exactly four weeks from today in Dayton, Ohio, with the opening two games of the First Four play-in games.

At this point, 28 days from the start of the greatest multi-week athletic event in American sports, only two things are certain. First, the tournament again will include 68 total teams. Second, barring injury, 67 of those teams are playing for second place to Duke.

But no matter how big a favorite the Blue Devils are to hand coach Mike Krzyzewski his sixth NCAA championship - only the late Wizard of Westwood, UCLA's John Wooden, has won more with 10 - three other schools eventually will join them in the Final Four, however futile their dreams to topple the Dookies.

So who's up, who's down and who could hang around come March Madness?

Today's column will break down the Power Five conferences plus the Big East 26 days from Selection Sunday, listing which team in each of those leagues looks to be the best at this moment, plus which team beyond that leader would be the team you'd least like to see in your path to the Final Four and why.

Because Duke is in the Atlantic Coast Conference and once more ranked No. 1 nationally we'll start with the ACC.

Best team: It has often been said of tennis star Serena Williams that you can't beat her, she can only beat herself. If the Blue Devils stay healthy, the same should apply to them. When their fantastic four freshmen - RJ Barrett, Tre Jones, Cam Reddish and Zion Williamson - are all on the floor, they're all but unbeatable and just might be the best team college hoops has seen since UNLV in 1990, undefeated Indiana in 1976 or even the Lew Alcindor/Lynn Shackleford/Lucius Allen/Mike Warren UCLA team of 1968.

Most dangerous: North Carolina. The Tar Heels are not only 20-5 overall, they're 5-3 against the Associated Press Top 25. Yes, they've had a couple of head-scratchers, such as that 21-point home loss to Louisville. But they've also shredded Gonzaga. If freshman point guard Coby White can play as big as his Afro come tourney time, the Heels just might join neighboring Duke in the Final Four.

Big East: Villanova may no longer be the team that has won two of the last three NCAA titles, but the Wildcats still have enough talent and firepower to win their conference and advance to the Sweet 16.

Most dangerous: Marquette, which is 4-1 against the Top 25 and 21-4 overall.

Big Ten: The best team is Michigan, which currently stands 6-0 against the AP Top 25, though the Wolverines have lost three of their last nine games, all on the road. The Maize and Blue aren't exactly the same team that reached last year's national championship game, but they have enough of those players back to return to the Final Four.

Most dangerous: Iowa. The Hawkeyes don't look that impressive when you watch them, but they can hit big shots from long range and are 4-3 against the Top 25. With three guards all hitting over 40 percent from behind the 3-point line in Joe Wieskamp, Jordan Bohannon and Isaiah Moss, they could become a nightmare come tourney time.

Big 12: Forget all that Kansas doesn't have with the continued ineligibility of Silvio De Sousa, the season-ending injury to center Udoka Azubuike and the odd saga of senior guard Lagerald Vick, who has taken a leave of absence for unknown reasons.

The Jayhawks are a stunning 7-2 against the Top 25 and one-half game off the lead in a Big 12 they've won 14 straight times. No matter what the FBI ultimately concludes about how Bill Self has built his program, if KU wins a 15th straight conference crown, he deserves national coach of the year.

Most dangerous: Iowa State. The Cyclones are scary good athletically, have multiple 3-point threats and just shredded Kansas State's fourth-ranked scoring defense for 14 triples in a 78-64 road win.

Pac-12: Someone has to be the best in this awful league, so let's go with the Washington Huskies, who stand 20-5 overall at the moment.

Most dangerous: They may not make the Big Dance, but Arizona State's Sun Devils are 2-1 against the Top 25, including a victory over Kansas.

SEC: Despite Saturday's road thumping at the hands of an inspired Kentucky, Tennessee still looks like the league's best team overall, blessed with tremendous balance, depth and lethal shooting. After 19 straight wins, and only three of them by fewer than double dights, the Vols were due an off night. If they're again beaten badly at LSU come Saturday, it might be time to move Kentucky or the Bayou Bengals to the top of the SEC.

Most dangerous: LSU. Tigers have the best collection of athletes and the most versatile point guard in Tremont Waters, who can destroy you with deep 3s, deft passing and sneaky defense. Plus, they've won three overtime games, which means they know how to manage the close ones.

This doesn't mean all four Final Four teams will come from the Power Five leagues plus the Big East. Houston is really good. Gonzaga could win it all. Someone like Wofford, with its own collection of long-range marksmen, could shock someone early, much as Maryland-Baltimore County became the first No. 16 seed ever to defeat a No. 1 when it shocked Virginia last year. So could Murray State, with its electric point guard Ja Morant.

But four weeks from the start of the tournament, the most likely Final Four would appear to be Duke, Tennessee, Gonzaga and Kansas, with Kentucky just behind those four.

Just don't expect anyone but the Dookies to be the last team standing.

Contact Mark Wiedmer at mwiedmer@timesfreepress.com.

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