ARTICLE TOOLS

E-mail story

Comments

Printer friendly version

iPod friendly version

Share This

Text Size: A A A A

Tennessee, Georgia receive primary attention

By: Dave Flessner
(Contact)

By: Andy Sher
(Contact)

Included in this article

Top Tennessee politicians shrink from primary endorsements

Voters head to the polls Tuesday in the most divided — and potentially most important — primary election since Tennessee began having presidential preference primaries in 1972.

Although the field of candidates narrowed in January for both Democrats and Republicans, polls indicate voters remain split among the remaining four Republican leading candidates and two leading Democrats.

“This will be the most hotly contested presidential primary involving both political parties ever in Tennessee,” said Dr. Rick Wilson, a political science professor at the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga.

Today may be Super Bowl Sunday, but with primaries and caucuses in 24 states on Tuesday, campaigns are spending this weekend trying to win the support of undecided voters for what they bill as “Super Tuesday.”

Many of the record number of voters who cast early ballots in Tennessee and Georgia may have voted for candidates no longer in the running. For Republicans, the political landscape was shaken in January when former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson got out of the race. Mr. Thompson had most of Tennessee’s Republican leaders — and much of the GOP faithful — in his camp after an initial national boomlet of enthusiasm last summer and early fall.

Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey, R-Blountville, said many Republicans including himself had supported Mr. Thompson before his campaign ultimately fizzled last month in Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan and finally South Carolina

“Nobody really knows what to do on our side,” said Lt. Gov. Ramsey, who remains on the ballot as a would-be Thompson delegate at the Republican National Convention.

Polls indicate the GOP vote remains split among Arizona Sen. John McCain, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, although Texas Congressman Ron Paul also enjoys a loyal, though smaller base of support.

Sen. McCain campaigned Saturday in Nashville and Mr. Huckabee will appear at the Chattanooga Convention Center on Monday for a rally a day ahead of Tuesday’s balloting.

The Democratic contest has narrowed to New York Sen. Hillary Clinton and Illinois Sen. Barack Obama after former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards suspended his campaign two days after an appearance in Chattanooga.

Most polls show Sen. Clinton leading in Tennessee and Sen. Obama with the edge in Georgia.

The two remaining Democrats are filling television airwaves this weekend after personal appearances last week in Nashville, Atlanta and Macon, Ga.

HIGHER VOTER TURNOUT

The number of Tennessee and Georgia voters casting ballots during early voting swelled to a record high, state election officials said last week.

Voter turnout across Tennessee more than tripled the early turnout totals in the past two presidential primaries. State Election Coordinator Brook Thompson said this year could break the record of 830,000 set when Al Gore ran for the Democratic presidential primary in 1988.

“We could approach a million (votes),” Mr. Thompson said.

The Georgia Secretary of State’s office reported four times as many advance ballots cast last week in advance of the Tuesday election as were cast in the last presidential primary in 2004.

Dr. Michael Fitzgerald, University of Tennessee political science professor, said Tennessee’s record-high early balloting in the previous three weeks will leave candidates, campaign officials and pundits “in a tizzy figuring out what the results mean” or predict about the November general election.

“Thompson’s dropping out of the race after South Carolina complicates things because he remains on the primary ballot, and potentially many thousands of votes that would have gone to other candidates will have been cast for Thompson,” he said.

GOP FIELD SHIFTS

Since Mr. Thompson dropped out, Sen. McCain has picked up endorsements from establishment Republicans including former U.S. Senate Majority Leader Howard Baker, R-Tenn., and Pat Brock, of Lookout Mountain. However, Mr. Brock’s brother, former Tennessee Sen. Bill Brock, said he is backing Mr. Romney.

Rep. Gerald McCormick, R-Chattanooga, and Hamilton County Mayor Claude Ramsey endorsed Sen. McCain, although Mr. Ramsey said he voted early for Mr. Thompson. Bill Raines, a retired two-star Army general who worked on Sen. McCain’s unsuccessful previous run for president in 2000, also is back in the McCain fold after earlier supporting Mr. Thompson.

“Tennessee has more than 500,000 veterans, and they know and appreciate John McCain’s service and record,” Mr. Raines said about Sen. McCain, a former Navy pilot captured as a prisoner of war in the Vietnam War.

Even former Gov. Don Sundquist, a Republican, and former U.S. Rep. Van Hilleary, R-Tenn., who as the GOP’s unsuccessful 2002 gubernatorial candidate attacked Mr. Sundquist’s support for a state income tax, have overcome their mutual dislike to endorse Sen. McCain.

“Campaigns are interesting propositions,” observed Mr. Hilleary, when asked about Mr. Sundquist.

Mr. Hilleary, who also ran for the U.S. Senate in 2006, said his support for Sen. McCain “is driven in large part by the fact that I know he’ll be the best commander in chief.”

Chattanooga stock broker Todd Gardenhire, an early supporter of Ronald Reagan in the 1970s, is again running for the GOP convention as a McCain-pledged delegate.

“This year has a lot of the same feel and enthusiasm we had back in 1976,” he said.

Former Sundquist Chief of Staff Wendell Moore, who has known Sen. McCain since 1982, said he believes the senator is “doing well.”

“I think clearly all the campaigns have pretty much stayed out of Tennessee because Fred Thompson was our favorite son. ... Now that Fred’s out, Tennessee’s back in play,” he said.

That was clearly in evidence last week as GOP candidates or their surrogates swooped down on the Volunteer State.

Mr. Huckabee swept through the state Capitol and also picked up support from Tennessee Right to Life, the state’s preeminent anti-abortion group.

“Our members recognize Mike Huckabee as ‘one of us’ and that enthusiasm is driven by his demonstrated record of leadership and sacrifice toward the shared cause of protecting life,” organization president Brian Harris said in a statement.

Mr. Huckabee, a former Baptist minister, has attracted many evangelicals and social conservatives. Chris Lanier, a Chattanooga attorney, said he and his wife are running as Huckabee-pledged delegates because of his support for a national sales tax to replace the personal income tax.

“We have a lot of enthusiastic supporters, and I really think we will win Tennessee,” Mr. Lanier said.

But other local Republicans are rallying behind Mr. Romney, who sent his brother to the state Capitol last week for an event that featured supporters former Gov. Winfield Dunn, state House Minority Leader Jason Mumpower, R-Bristol, and 16 other state legislators.

Chattanooga insurance agency owner Phil Smartt, who is running as a Romney delegate, said he hopes Mr. Romney will pick up many of the former Thompson supporters and attract the growing number of people worried about the economy.

“His experience in business (as former CEO of Bain & Co.) should help him a lot with voters concerned about the direction of our economy,” Mr. Smartt said.

In Georgia, a survey Monday of 301 likely voters conducted by Insider Advantage/Majority Opinion Research showed Sen. McCain leading with 35 percent compared to 24 percent each for Mr. Huckabee and Mr. Romney. But another poll last week of 862 likely voters by Public Policy Polling shows Mr. Romney leading with 32 percent versus 31 percent for Sen. McCain and 24 percent for Mr. Huckabee.

“I think there’s a lot of folks still looking at the different candidates, making up their minds,” Georgia Republican Party Executive Director Ben Fry said.

Mr. Huckabee was recently in Georgia and plans to be back today, Mr. Fry said. Sen. McCain was to be in town Saturday, and there is talk Mr. Romney will make a visit.

“There’s still an opportunity for people to talk about why their vision is best for the country,” Mr. Fry said.

DEMOCRATIC FIELD

Republicans may have twice as many major candidates still competing for votes Tuesday, but most of the local television advertising has been for Sen. Clinton or Sen. Obama, according to local television stations.

Vanderbilt University political science professor Bruce Oppenheimer said polls he has seen “have shown Hillary well ahead.” But he cautioned, “It’s always dicey to predict in primaries what’s going to happen.”

He said a major question for Sen. Obama is what the turnout is in Memphis, where blacks are a majority.

State Rep. Tommie Brown, D-Chattanooga, who is black, said she initially supported Sen. Clinton but switched to Sen. Obama.

“This time last year, no one could have told me that I would not be standing with Hillary, because when he first started talking about this, I thought, ‘Oh my gosh does he really stand a chance?’” Rep. Brown said.

She said she decided to switch to Sen. Obama based on what she characterized as his “charisma” and ability to reach across boundaries of race, age and gender.

“For this ol’ lady who happened to have been born black, this is probably her last chance to get to go into the polls and cast a vote for the African-American — not just because his name is on the ballot but one who is highly qualified and can do all the things I believe he aspires to do and wants us to do,” she said.

For many black voters and officials, the Democratic contest has split many families and traditional allies. About one of every four Democratic voters is black, according to state pollsters.

“It was a really tough choice because I have always liked Bill Clinton, but it’s great to see and be able to vote for a candidate like Obama,” Milton Buttram, a 67-year-old black voter in Brainerd, said after casting his early ballot last week for Sen. Obama.

While three recent polls show Sen. Obama trailing Sen. Clinton, Sen. Obama’s Tennessee political director, former Tennessee Democratic Party chairman Bob Tuke, said the campaign is “real pleased” with how it’s doing.

He noted that a Jan. 28-29 poll of 402 voters, commissioned by WSM-TV in Nashville, showed Sen. Obama had cut Sen. Clinton’s lead to 5 percent. Another poll of 463 likely Tennessee voters by Insider Advantage/Majority Opinion Research showed Sen. Clinton ahead by 59 percent to 26 percent.

“That’s absolute nonsense,” Mr. Tuke said. “This is going to be very close, I believe. Our internal polling and the anecdotal response we’re getting says that’s nonsense. ... I can say it’s very close and trending our way.”

He said Obama supporters were engaged in phone banking and going door to door during early voting and plan to continue such efforts. The Obama campaign is making a “very heavy” television ad buy over the weekend.

Mr. Tuke said Sen. Obama is capturing most of the young voters. A straw poll last week among UTC students showed that Sen. Obama got 727 votes, compared with 154 for Sen. Clinton.

On the Republican side, Sen. McCain got the most UTC student votes in the straw poll with 126, followed by 90 for Mr. Huckabee and 42 for Mr. Romney.

While the three polls show Sen. Clinton ahead among all voters in Tennessee, Clinton supporter and former Tennessee Democratic Party chairman Randy Button said, “we’re not taking anything for granted.”

He said the Clinton campaign remains on television in most media markets with a “substantial buy,” and phone banks are in full operation.

Sen. Clinton’s Tennessee backers include former Gov. Ned McWherter and former National Transportation Safety Board chairman Jim Hall, of Signal Mountain, and his wife, Annie Hall. Noting the campaign co-director, state Sen. Thelma Harper, D-Memphis, is black, Mr. Button said Sen. Clinton is “doing very well among African-Americans” across Tennessee.

“This is a very, very important state, and we plan on winning the state and carrying us on to the nomination,” he said, noting that both Sen. Clinton and former President Clinton have campaigned in Tennessee. “This is going to be a key to winning the nomination.”

Presidential primary winners

Tennessee began selecting political party delegates at presidential primary elections in 1972 and Georgia added its primaries four years later.

Tennessee

1972 - Democrat George Wallace

Republican Richard Nixon

1976 Democrat Jimmy Carter

Republican Gerald Ford

1980 Democrat Jimmy Carter

Republican Ronald Reagan

1984 Democrat Walter Mondale

Republican Ronald Reagan

1988 Democrat Al Gore

Republican George H.W. Bush

1992 Democrat Bill Clinton

Republican George H. W. Bush

1996 Democrat Bill Clinton

Republican Bob Dole

2000 Democrat Al Gore

Republican George W. Bush

2004 Democrat John Kerry

Republican George W. Bush

Georgia

1976 Democrat Jimmy Carter

Republican Ronald Reagan

1980 Democrat Jimmy Carter

Republican Ronald Reagan

1984 Democrat Walter Mondale

Republican Ronald Reagan

1988 Democrat Jesse Jackson

Republican George H.W. Bush

1992 Democrat Bill Clinton

Republican George H.W. Bush

1996 Democrat Bill Clinton

Republican Bob Dole

2000 Democrat Al Gore

Republican George W. Bush

2004 Democrat John Kerry

Republican George W. Bush

Source: Almanac of American Politics

Comments