It's been a year since the uprising that led to the fall of long-time Egyptian ruler Hosni Mubarak began, but the hopes for democratic government and a more open society in Egypt raised by the so-called "Arab Spring" movement have failed to bear fruit. Egypt is now mired in a winter of discontent.
It is difficult to know if the troubled nation is moving, ever so slowly, toward democracy, or if military, political and religious rivalries are preventing an orderly transition from autocratic rule to representative government.
There are some signs that positive change is taking place in Egypt. Political parties of various philosophies are flourishing. Elections have taken place and Parliament, the first seated since Mubarak's fall, is assuming a legislative role. A new constitution is being discussed and talks about how to transfer governance of the country from the military council now in charge to a president that will be elected in June are moving forward. Still, the promise of Egypt's revolution has yet to be realized.
Significant tensions between the generals on the military council and elected officials remain. Indeed, in recent days, those stresses have increased. Lawmakers are irate that the military council, charged with running the country until presidential elections are held, continues to rule by decree rather than in consultation with parliament. There are other issues as well.
Egypt's diplomatic relations with the United States are on the rocks. The military council's recent crackdown on private, non-government and outside groups that promote democratic institutions is counterproductive. Pro-democracy workers have been harassed and threatened. Things have gotten so dicey, in fact, that the U.S. State Department said Monday that it would provide safe haven in the U.S. Embassy in Cairo for three American workers who worked for pro-democrcy groups.
The council's actions have been noted in Washington. Administration officials have made it clear that continued U.S. aide to Egypt -- $1.3 billion annually -- is predicated on that nation's continued movement toward democratic rule. That stance is correct. There's no need for the United States to continue to fund an erstwhile ally whose actions are contradictory to pledges made following Mubarak's overthrow.
Israel, too, has reason to worry. Its security depends heavily on the continuation of the Egyptian-Israeli peace accord. So far, there's been no definitive word from Cairo about the future of the treaty, and tensions on the Sinai border are growing. Egypt can not afford such a distraction. It needs the security provided by the pact to build vital democratic institutions and economic stability.
Egypt's military council and newly elected lawmakers must find a balance of power within a democratic framework, and do so soon. If they do not, the consequences -- for Egypt, for the Mideast, for the world -- could be alarming.